Thursday, February 22, 2018

Market Update Manhattan – 4th Quarter 2017


According to Vanderbilt Appraisal Services, the final quarter of 2017 exhibited evidence of a minor market correction with 7% fewer sales and a 6% decline in the average sale price which fell under $2 million for the second consecutive quarter. However, median sale price increased slightly to $1.1 million. Closed sales for the fourth quarter of 2017 totaled 2,696 compared to 2,891 during the same quarter the prior year.
The overall market under $3 million made up 85% of all sales activity in the fourth quarter. This segment posted an increase in average sales price as well as median sales price of 1% and 3%, respectively. The average sales prices in the $3 - $10 million category declined 6%, while the market above $10 million reflected a 1% growth in average sales price.

Manhattan’s inventory of 6,034 listings is 1% higher than the 5,963 listings in the prior year. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings.
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Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Tax Overhaul Plans Make New York Home Buyers Think Twice


Brokers say buyers are worried as House and Senate proposals would increase the cost of owning many residential properties. 

There are signs home buyers in metropolitan New York are pausing to consider the effects of proposed federal tax law changes, setting the stage for a possible chill in the market, brokers say.

The changes, in versions of bills in both the House and the Senate, likely would increase the cost of home ownership and reduce after-tax discretionary income for many mostly affluent home buyers in New York and other states with high state and local income and property taxes, brokers and analysts say.

Those taxes now can be deducted from income on federal tax returns. The proposals would reduce or eliminate that benefit, though some of the benefit already is offset by another federal tax provision known as the alternative minimum tax.

The proposed tax changes are threatening the already vulnerable high-end housing market in New York City and the surrounding suburbs, brokers say, as some prospective buyers put off decisions.

“People are worried,” said Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty Inc. in New York, who follows trends in the luxury market. “They want to know how much less money is going into their pockets every year. The tax changes proposed in the House and the Senate mean a pay cut for New Yorkers.”

Dawn Knief, a broker in the Scarsdale, N.Y., office of Julia B. Fee Sotheby’s International Realty, said buyers aren’t panicking, but they were closely watching what was happening in Washington.  Many communities in Westchester are known for their quality public schools and high property taxes that pay for them. “People are still digesting all of this,” said Ms. Knief. “If this comes to pass, there might have to be some price adjustments.”

Brokers said the tax issue regularly comes up in conversations with buyers, particularly more sophisticated ones who work in finance, and some people have put plans on hold.

In New York City, budget analysts said they might have to reduce revenue forecasts from the city’s transfer taxes on residential property sales because of expectations of fewer sales and lower prices. In Florida, where there is no income tax, brokers say they expect to see a new wave of buyers from New York and California looking to move there to reduce taxes.

“If legislation like this passes, I think people will be running for Florida, that is a perfect escape route,” said Pamela Liebman, president of New York-based Corcoran Group, which also operates in South Florida. “We have seen it all before, and it will escalate.”

The proposed tax changes are complex and will affect home buyers in different ways. They were designed to reduce taxes for many middle-income families, by lowering rates and doubling the standard deduction that reduces taxable income.

But both the Senate and the House proposal reduce or eliminate deductions for state and local taxes that are important factors in high-tax states. The House version would preserve a deduction on up to $10,000 in property taxes.  Deductions of interest paid on loans totaling up to $1 million would be preserved in the Senate bill but would be capped at $500,000 in the House bill for new buyers.

The alternative minimum tax would be eliminated, blunting a portion of the impact of other tax changes. According to new estimates from New York City’s Independent Budget Office, deductions by city residents for state and local taxes reduced their federal tax bills by $11.1 billion in 2015, but 24% of that was offset by $2.7 billion collected through the AMT.

The AMT totaled 30% of the savings from state and local tax deductions for taxpayers earning $200,000 or more, and 7% for earners making between $100,000 and $200,000, the budget office said.

Frederick Peters, the chief executive officer of Warburg Realty, said some proposed tax changes for business owners and partners could benefit the after-tax earnings of some New York buyers in the luxury market.

But most worrying to industry professionals were proposed changes that raise the direct cost of home ownership and likely reduce the value of a home. For example, ending the deduction on every $10,000 of local property taxes of a house would cost a homeowner in the 33% federal tax bracket $3,300 the first year. The budget of that added tax liability year after year, plus future property tax increases, could limit how much buyers are willing to pay for properties today, brokers said.  Likewise, the loss of the deductibility of $100,000 in mortgage interest would increase the after-tax interest costs on a jumbo loan by more than $1,200 a year. 

Hall Willkie, president of brokerage Brown Harris Stevens, said the potential impact of tax changes is adding to uncertainty that has already led buyers to delay decisions and made them price sensitive.  “It is an uncertain time in the world,” he said. “This is going to create another little pause until people get their hands around it.”

Soon after the House tax plan was announced, Jeff Miller, a Miami broker, said he fielded several phone calls from New Yorkers who had looked at Miami Beach property in the past and were now getting serious.

One couple, who looked for homes in the area last year, is coming down to see a house on an island off Miami Beach listed for $22.5 million over the summer, Mr. Mille said.  “People I have been working with were on the fence,” he said. “Now they want to move. The new tax bill was the nudge they needed to push them over.”


Source: The Wall Street Journal


Monday, November 13, 2017

Market Update Manhattan – 3rd Quarter 2017


The third quarter of 2017 was marked by a 5% increase in the number of closed sales from 3,483 to 3,657 over the prior year. This is the third consecutive quarter of growth in the number of sales. The average sale price was down 3% while the median sale price was up 11%. Closed sales for the third quarter of 2017 totaled 3,657 compared to 3,483 during the same quarter the prior year. The under $3mil market made up 84% of all sales activity and posted 5% more sales than the prior year. This segment posted an 8% increase in the average sale price and 11% increase in the median sale price. The average and median sale prices in the $3mil to $10mil category increased 4% and 8% respectively while the $10mil+ category reflected a 9% drop in the average sale price and an 7% drop in the median sale price.

The average sale price of all recorded Manhattan apartment sales was $1,985,000, a 3% decline over prior year. The median sale price of $1,185,000 was a 2% decline over the prior quarter and an 11% gain over the prior year. The median sale price for all of Manhattan has registered over $1mil for the 9th consecutive quarter.
Inventory is at 6,397 listings which is 3% higher than the 6,209 listings in the prior quarter and 12% higher than at the start of 2017. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000-9,000+/- listings.

CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 03/01/2017-08/31/2017)
The overall Manhattan absorption is 6 months which in a general sense signi es a market in “equilibrium”. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6-month period. The lower price segments continue to expe- rience shortages of inventory with $1mil at 4 months of supply and from $1mil- $2mil at 5.6 months of supply. Units priced from $6mil to $10mil have a 10.4 month absorption rate. The top two price tiers above $10mil both have an over one year supply, signi- fying an oversupply that has resulted in discounts and longer marketing time for the highest valued properties. As the oversupply continues in the highest price brackets it is increasingly more di cult for sellers in the top price segments to remain in exible in their price expectations.


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Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Here’s why American cities are safe from housing bubble speculation


Despite housing crises in San Francisco, LA and New York, we don't live in bubbles. No American cities made UBS’s annual “bubble risk” index this year, though several of cities like San Francisco, LA, and, of course, New York are in the midst of local housing crises. Here’s how the Swiss bank’s index assessed them:

The case for San Francisco
Even though the city saw real prices go up by 65 percent since 2011 — 15 percent more than the average city UBS qualified as a bubble risk — the Swiss bank isn’t concerned about the tech town. It’s overvalued, but its booming tech companies, and the strong local economy that accompanies them, means San Fran’s soaring prices are unlikely to crash suddenly.

Ditto for LA
Though prices have climbed by 45 percent since 2012, Los Angeles’ star-studded local economy shows no signs of faltering, so UBS isn’t worried — despite LA being well above the national average increase for U.S. home prices, which currently is hovering at 23 percent.

New York’s mixed bag
Here’s the good news for buyers: New York is “fairly valued,” according to the Swiss bankers’ assessment of the city, which, even they admit, is “one of the most expensive and unaffordable markets in the world.” For four quarters in a row, New York prices rose less than 3 percent and have only risen 10 percent since 2013.

The bad news: if you’re actually working in New York, salaries are not increasing enough to make a difference. The average income went up by only 7 percent since 2013; so, if you couldn’t afford prices then, you still can’t now. The report also notes rising costs associated with financing and a decline in population as factors hampering demand.

Then there’s the issue of high-end units not selling. Since 2015, deals in the luxury market have “declined considerably,” according to the report, and average selling time has doubled in comparison to 2013.

The combination of an oversupply of luxury units, too-low local salaries and the still yet-to-come units in development, lead UBS to conclude their report by observing that “buyers will likely require additional discounts from developers.” [UBS] — E.K. Hudson

Source: The Real Deal

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Thursday, September 28, 2017

15 Central Park West Remains Manhattan’s Most Expensive Condo


The building’s eight sales in the last 12 months averaged $7,227 per square foot, CityRealty finds.
 
The Zeckendorf family-developed 15 Central Park West remains the most expensive condo in New York, claiming the top three sales by price per square footage within the 12 months up to June 30,  according to a CityRealty report released Tuesday.

During that period, there were eight sales in the Robert A.M. Stern-designed building—home to celebrities like Sting, fashion designer Elie Tahari, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Russian billionaire Dmitry Rybolovlev—with an average sales price of $7,227 per square foot, up 10.1% from the $6,735 a year ago.

Despite the newer luxury condos being built on Billionaires’ Row, 15 Central Park West has been consistently ranked No. 1 since 2014 in The CityRealty 100, a bi-annual index tracking the performances of top 100 condominium buildings in Manhattan.

The second and third most expensive condos in New York are 432 Park Avenue (45 sales with an average price of $5,930 per square foot) and Residences at the Mandarin Oriental at 80 Columbus Circle (four sales with an average price of $5,215 per square foot), according to CityRealty, a New York-based real estate web site.

Overall, the 100 buildings had an average price per square foot of $2,788 from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017, increasing 9% year-over-year.  
“Prices rose in part because of closings recorded in very expensive newer developments such as 432 Park Ave. and One57, as well as continued high prices in properties such as 15 Central Park West,” said Gabby Warshawer, director of research and communications at CityRealty.  
“There has been some softness in luxury condos, but these buildings in the Index have retained their value,” Ms. Warshawer said.

Other findings in the report include:
  • The number of condo sales was largely unchanged, with 1,098 apartments changing hands in The CityRealty 100 condos, a 3% decrease from the same period a year ago
  • The most expensive sale by unit price was a penthouse in 15 Central Park West, averaging $9,581 per square foot and totaling $50.55 million
  • 432 Park Ave. had the most expensive single sale. An anonymous buyer dropped $65.6 million on a full-floor unit in January 2017
  • Midtown East is the most expensive neighborhood, with an average price per square foot of $4,185, followed by Central Park West ($3,758) and Greenwich Village ($3,570)
Among the CityRealty 100 condos, 30 East 85th St. had the best 10-year compound annual growth rate at 5.61%, followed by Trump Park Avenue (4.8%), The Park Belvedere (4.4%), 3 Lincoln Center (4.3%) and Time Warner Center (4.2%).

Source: Mansion Global

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Monday, September 25, 2017

NYC New Development: Soft in the Middle, Splashy Up Top



Three years ago, Soo K. Chan, an architect well known in Singapore but new to the Manhattan luxury condo scene, posed a question to jaded New Yorkers: How about a pool in the living room?
Well, why not? It was a hit overseas, where Mr. Chan had designed pools for luxury apartments in Southeast Asia, and at the time the New York City condo market was on fire.

So Soori High Line, the new 31-unit luxury mid-rise in West Chelsea that Mr. Chan designed and developed, will have four-foot-deep saltwater pools in more than half of its apartments. The 24-foot-long pools, surrounded by a glass enclosure, are heated and partially open to the outdoors, enticing residents to swim even during a snowstorm.

The apartments — which range in price from about $3 million for a two-bedroom to $22.5 million for the five-bedroom, triplex penthouse — have ceilings as high as 18 feet, heated limestone floors, gas fireplaces and doorknobs wrapped in hand-stitched leather.

 “Our approach is not to cut back,” Mr. Chan, also known as Chan Soo Khian, said of the shifting market. “In fact, what I’ve done is up the ante. A well-crafted building will speak for itself in a difficult market.”

In Manhattan’s new development scene, there are bold bets aplenty, but 2014 it is not. The ultraluxury market, with prices north of $10 million, has softened since the rise of billionaire’s row along 57th Street, and developers are taking note: Some are doubling down on ultraluxury and seeking new ways to stand out, while others pursue an underserved group – buyers willing to shell out between $1 million and $3 million for an “entry-level” home.

Builders who aim somewhere in the middle — in the $5 million to $10 million range — are feeling the tightest squeeze, because of oversupply and a dearth of buyers. And those with buildings under way are facing a tough choice: stay firm on pricing set when the market was stronger, with the risk of getting lost in the mix, or offer concessions to move what hasn’t sold?

Recent data tell a tale of two markets. The median sales price for new development in Manhattan rose to $3.3 million in the second quarter, up a staggering 22.8 percent from the same period a year earlier.  At the same time, the average listing discount, or price drop, for new development was 7.5 percent — far more generous than it was the first quarter, when brokers discounted an average 2.8 percent. A year ago, agents were seeking an average of 1 percent above asking price.

“The expectation was that there are so many billionaires in the world, they’re a dime a dozen – and that’s not what happened,” said Jonathan J. Miller, a New York real estate appraiser.
The record prices of the last few years were driven in large part by contracts for exceptionally expensive units signed as far back as 2013, often before construction began, and because they have taken years to close, “they’ve been padding the market,” Mr. Miller said.

The market peaked in 2014, he said, when cranes seemed to dominate the city skyline. “It completely removed that sense of urgency” to buy, though builders have been slow to respond to the drop in demand, he said, adding that high land prices pushed them to build bigger, more expensive units to hit their margins, leaving less room for flexibility in price.

Now that is catching up with them. About 2,800 new units are expected to come onto the market in 2017, said Kelly Kennedy Mack, president of Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group, which is about half the original projection.

Recent sales also suggest a shifting focus in the city: The Upper East Side is the top-selling neighborhood for new development this year, she said, with 12 percent of total sales, thanks in part to the new Second Avenue subway line. Midtown West and the Financial District rounded out the top three areas, and half of all new construction in the pipeline will be downtown.

The slowdown hasn’t deterred some very ambitious projects that developers hope will break records with nine-figure price tags. Central Park Tower, a new addition to billionaire’s row on West 57th Street, between Seventh and Eighth Avenues, anticipates total sales in excess of $4 billion, according to documents filed with the State Attorney General. That would make it New York’s most expensive residential tower ever. The mixed-use tower, which will have a Nordstrom department store at its base, will have 179 condos, according to paperwork filed by Extell, the developer.

In Lenox Hill, the developer Zeckendorf filed to list a $130 million triplex apartment at the under-construction 520 Park Avenue. Not to be outdone, Vornado Realty Trust, the developer at 220 Central Park South, has filed to list a $250 million, 23,000-square-foot quadruplex apartment in the limestone-clad tower. The current sales record, set in 2015, is a $100.5 million sale at Extell’s One57 tower.

Others are raising the stakes in different ways. Robert Gladstone, chief executive of Madison Equities, is betting that buyers in his Beaux-Arts conversion at 212 Fifth Avenue, in NoMad, will want bragging rights. He decided to scrap plans for two penthouses and create one ultraluxury triplex apartment with 10,000 square feet of living space and a 5,700-square-foot terrace. The asking price: $68.5 million.

“There are fewer people in the world who can buy it. But it’s the penthouse, not a penthouse,” he said. “If someone can spend $50 million, most of them could spend $70 million on an apartment.”
The space will have chevron-patterned flooring, a grand staircase and, as in all the units, a special air-filtration system. “People really dig that kind of detail,” Mr. Gladstone said.

Source: The New York Times

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Monday, September 18, 2017

Manhattan Super-Luxury Rental Market Remained Robust in August


The number of new leases valued at $10,000 per month or more surged 29%
Unlike its sales market, the Manhattan luxury rental market saw a sizzling hot August, as both the number of new leases and median rents rose sharply.  
The number of luxury rentals, defined as the top 10% most expensive leases with a threshold of $6,250 per month, rose to 708 in August, representing a 12.6% increase year-over-year. Median luxury rent edged up to $8,000 per month, up 1.8%.
The luxury rental market in Manhattan also gained more ground compared to July. The number of luxury leases jumped 15.1% month-over-month in August while median rent rose 1.6%.
The average apartment size for luxury rentals was 1,704 square feet, increasing 6.7% year-over-year and almost double the size of apartments in the remaining 90% of the market, which averaged 805 square feet, according to Jonathan Miller, chief executive of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel and author of the reports.
“Last month, there were more closings in the new rental developments, which tend to be larger and more expensive than the average stock,” Mr. Miller said.
Super-luxury rentals, those with a monthly rent of  $10,000 and up, saw a sharper increase in leasing activity. The number of new leases signed during August increased 29.4% year-over-year to 211.
This segment accounted for 3% of all the new leases in August, with a median rent of $13,500, according to Mr. Miller.
In the overall Manhattan rental market, 7,061 new leases were transacted in August, rising 12.3% from a year ago and marking the largest number in over nine years. Median rent for all Manhattan was $3,442 per month, up 1.3% from August 2016.

Source: Mansion Global 

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