An effective equilibrium has developed in the overall market as formerly hesitant buyers appear to be re-emerging. A 5% increase in total number of closed sales and a 12% increase in the more affordable co-op market segment signaled that value-conscious buyers were more enthusiastic this past quarter.
The increase in the number of closed sales was joined by increases in the overall average sales price (+5%) and the median sales price (+10%). The under $3mil market made up 82% of all sales activity with a 3% increase on total sales.
Sales in the under $3mil market posted a 5% increase in the average sales price and 6% increase in the median sales price. The average and median sales prices in the $3mil to $10mil category remained relatively unchanged while the $10mil+ category reflected a 5% drop in the average sales price and an 8% drop in the median sales price.
AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE
The average sales price of all recorded Manhattan sales was $2,160,000, a 5% gain over the prior year. The median sales price of $1,220,000 was a 10% gain over the prior quarter and an 11% gain over the prior year. The median sales price for all of Manhattan has registered over $1mil for the eighth consecutive quarter.
NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY
The number of sales increased the second quarter of the year to an estimated 3,438 from 2,893 in the first quarter of 2017. Inventory is at 6,209 listings which is higher than the prior quarter of 5,725 listings. This is the highest level of inventory since the 2nd quarter of 2016. This level of inventory is still below normalized supply levels of 8,000+/- listings.
MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE
CONDOS & CO-OPS (based on 6 months of closed sales 01/01/2017-06/30/2017)
The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 6.4 months which in a general sense signi es a market in equilibrium. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 6-9 months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the referenced 6-month period. The lower price segments continue to experience shortages of inventory with the under- $1mil market at 4.1 months of supply and units between $1M - $2mil at 6.2 months of supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates of 16 months and 23 months, signifying an oversupply that has resulted in price discounts and longer marketing time for the highest valued properties. More seller negotiability should materialize in the $4-$6mil range and the $6-$10mil range as these segments are also approaching or exceeding one year of inventory at the current pace of sales.
THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET
CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M
Over the second quarter of 2017 there were 84 ultra-luxury sales, a 14% increase from the prior quarter. The average sales price in this market sector was $17,582,000, posting an 8% decline over the prior quarter and a 7% decline over the prior year. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $55mil for unit 3AB at 960 Fifth Avenue.
CO-OPS
Second quarter 2017 co-op number of sales are up 12% from the prior year. The average overall co-op price posted an increase of 7% to $1,370,000. In the under $3mil segment, both the average sales price and median sales price increased 6% and number of closed sales increased 13%. For co-op units in the price tier ranging from $3mil to $10 mil, the measures posted losses of 3% o the average sales price while the median sales price was down 5%. There were 14 recorded sales in the top tier co-op price bracket ending with an average sales price of $21,075,000.
CONDOS
Condominium closings declined slightly by 2% with a total of 1601 closed sales. However, the average sales price, median sales price and price per square foot continued to post gains. The average condo sale price rose 8% to $3,069,000; the average price per square foot gained 3% to $1,817; and the median sales price increased 16% $1,827,000. Rising condo price statistics continue to be produced by a large number of units closing from the new development sector of deals procured in pre-construction phases of 2015. The under $3mil condo segment, which is largely made up of resales, gained 7% in average sales price and 12% increase in median sales price. For condo units over $10mil, the market measures were lower this quarter with a 12% drop in the average sales price; 11% decline in median price; and, a 6% lower average price per square foot.
NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN
UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue
This market area showed a slight decline in sales volume in the condo sector and a major increase in the sale of co-op units. The average co-op sale price posted a 7% increase to $1,782,000 while the median sales price declined 3% from the prior year to $925,000. Condo average sales prices were up 12% to $3,013,000 from $2,688,000.
UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive
The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 296, a decrease of 8% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sales price of $1,529,000, a 9% increase from the prior year. The condo sector posted gains in both the average sales price and the median sales price. The average condo sale price was $2,949,000 and the median sales price was $1,424,000.
MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street
The average co-op sale price in this market area increased 2% to $977,000 while the median co-op price gained 3% over the prior year. This market area had an average condo sale price of just $2,489,000 compared with $2,961,000 the year prior. Lower average and median price statistics this period were due mostly in part to fewer closings at 432 Park Avenue.
UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side
The average sales price of co-ops was higher by 5%, reaching $578,000. The median sales price decreased 4% to $480,000. Market measures were significantly higher in the condo unit sector with a 40% gain in the average condo sales price and a 19% gain in the median condo sales price. The average condo unit price reached $1,063,000 with the median condo sale price reaching $830,000. Both the condo sector had a significant decrease in sales volume from the prior year.
DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca
The 550 co-op sales in the second quarter of 2017 marked a 10% increase from prior year. The co-op average sales price was essentially equal with prior year ending at $1,232,000. The median co-op sale price was up 6% ending this quarter at $875,000. In the condo sector sales volume was modestly higher. The average sales price was up just 5% while the median sales price decreased 4%.
FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY
There were 192 condo units closed in the second quarter of 2017, a substantial increase over the prior year. This was caused in part by a high volume of closings at 50 West Street. The average condominium price increased 52% to $2,209,000 from $1,455,000 in the second quarter of 2017, also a result of closings at 50 West Street. Co-op sales are a minimal share of housing in this market. The 23 co-op units sold had an average sales price of $980,000 and a median sale of $732,000.
MARKET COMPARISONS
Comparing the second quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017, San Francisco show the largest gain in price per sq. ft. at 2.7%, New York City increased by 2.5%, while Los Angeles remained at. Comparing second quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2017 price per sq. ft. remained at in New York City and Los Angeles while San Francisco saw a 4.6% gain.
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